Back-Invention
0xcb958555ce5fe9b44f07049c57dc8632388a93f8
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
144
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-920.61
Realised
$-269.49
Win rate
4%
136 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 144- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 5?
2999 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.13
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 24?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 30?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on May 11?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 9?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 20?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 12?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on May 25?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 18?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 April 27-May 3?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 5PM ET$31.54Aug 17, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 5PM ET$30.10Aug 17, 21:59 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$20.19Aug 17, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$20.03Aug 17, 21:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$30.00Aug 17, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$30.00Aug 17, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 21:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$10.09Aug 17, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$10.01Aug 17, 21:09 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$30.00Aug 17, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$30.00Aug 17, 20:53 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 3PM ET$4.99Aug 17, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 3PM ET$5.00Aug 17, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 3PM ET$9.99Aug 17, 19:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 3PM ET$22.12Aug 17, 19:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 3PM ET$7.93Aug 17, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 3PM ET$10.01Aug 17, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 3PM ET$20.01Aug 17, 19:53 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - August 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$10.09Aug 17, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$10.01Aug 17, 19:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 136 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
136 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $15.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 20:58 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 22:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 136 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.