Growing-Lid
0xcba0b2e108b3974de8ff5bb592d4b0aced2597bf
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-19.6K
Realised
$3.6K
Win rate
86%
50 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on November 27?
33888 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 27, 2025$0.00
$-548.78
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 13?
26273 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-26.27
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 30?
22000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-100.91
- NO
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
15200 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-374.97
- NO
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?
14115 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-18.22
- NO
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
11163 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-94.35
- YES
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?
10596 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-204.38
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 10?
10182 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-160.95
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 13?
7124 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-35.31
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18?
6955 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-58.45
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$55.00Jul 20, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$0.45Jul 20, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$0.05Jul 20, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$0.02Jul 20, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$0.24Jul 20, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$0.24Jul 20, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$0.02Jul 20, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$0.06Jul 20, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$0.34Jul 20, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$0.02Jul 20, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$0.10Jul 20, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$0.20Jul 20, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$0.30Jul 20, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$4.70Jul 20, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$4.70Jul 20, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$4.75Jul 20, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$4.75Jul 20, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$4.80Jul 20, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$1.02Jul 20, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$4.80Jul 20, 23:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
78/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 50 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
50 closed markets, 86% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $1.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 14:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 23:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 50 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.