Academic-Fault
0xcba38f8e07955a5f45816753d7c4a6ae8af06055
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
69
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-33.1K
Realised
$-7.5K
Win rate
31%
39 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 69- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24?
130000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2025$0.00
$-398.58
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?
102102 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2025$0.00
$-1.7K
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
85000 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-2.3K
- YES
Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026?
54321 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-470.42
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
50000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
50000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
47937 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-991.38
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?
31736 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$0.00
$-402.83
- YES
Will Karoline Leavitt say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during next White House press briefing?
25000 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
22000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-102.98
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.63Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$16.27Jul 13, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$180.63Jul 13, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$195.24Jul 12, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$66.27Jul 12, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$98.80Jul 12, 08:27 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.09Jul 12, 00:45 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$4.37Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on July 11?$139.40Jul 11, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 11?$343.76Jul 11, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 11?$18.45Jul 11, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 11?$417.92Jul 11, 04:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$34.08Jul 11, 04:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$118.14Jul 11, 04:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$205.92Jul 11, 04:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$442.77Jul 11, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$845.67Jul 11, 02:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$0.71Jul 11, 01:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$42.98Jul 11, 01:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$110.54Jul 11, 01:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
31% win rate over 39 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
39 closed markets, 31% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $74.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 16:03 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 39 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.