Doting-Fleece
0xcbb8166806217097a4defbfdb59b6679270d8b21
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-665.83
Realised
$-135.60
Win rate
11%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
934 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-37.66
- YES
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
413 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-33.96
- YES
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026?
413 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$0.00
$-70.21
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?
265 shares @ 18.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-48.45
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 13?
123 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 13, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 4 2025)
100 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-80.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 30?
81 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 19?
67 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 20?
50 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on January 7?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026?$51.49Apr 26, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026?$19.91Apr 15, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?$0.20Feb 7, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?$4.93Feb 7, 10:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$40.03Feb 7, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.40Feb 7, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$1.60Feb 7, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?$1.86Feb 7, 06:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?$43.89Feb 6, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?$23.23Feb 5, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?$12.47Feb 5, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?$5.75Feb 4, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$31.67Feb 4, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 30?$1.00Jan 29, 02:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$58.66Jan 29, 01:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$15.03Jan 28, 15:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 44-45°F on January 20?$11.52Jan 23, 10:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on January 20?$20.00Jan 23, 10:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 20?$30.00Jan 23, 10:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C or higher on January 20?$39.99Jan 23, 10:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $19.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 20, 06:48 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 26, 22:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.