Unhealthy-Bog
0xcbbc5e035504421b084ad9248b660f6e9618b5d0
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-46.3K
Realised
$3.3K
Win rate
45%
143 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
140038 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-892.32
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
121083 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-229.69
- YES
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
120329 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-248.36
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
79841 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-284.87
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
75207 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.5K
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
70566 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-215.51
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?
69133 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2025$0.00
$-119.12
- YES
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
65000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-149.82
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 56°F or higher on November 15?
60750 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-187.17
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
59999 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-88.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 29?$0.20Jul 29, 01:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 29?$0.20Jul 29, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 29?$0.05Jul 29, 01:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 29?$0.20Jul 29, 01:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 29?$0.10Jul 29, 01:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 29?$0.16Jul 29, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 29?$0.10Jul 29, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 29?$0.07Jul 29, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 29?$0.20Jul 29, 00:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 30?$0.70Jul 29, 00:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 29?$0.10Jul 29, 00:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 29?$0.54Jul 29, 00:33 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.51Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 30?$0.21Jul 28, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on July 30?$0.10Jul 28, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 30?$0.12Jul 28, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 30?$20.20Jul 28, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 28?$1.31Jul 28, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on July 28?$0.82Jul 28, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on July 28?$0.01Jul 28, 21:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 143 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
143 closed markets, 45% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $28.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 01:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 01:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 143 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.