Late-Cabana
0xcbbfaa2aeb9870606ee8443a24ff32d7789ab009
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
52
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-348.13
Realised
$0.30
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- YES
Will Trump say "Hottest" during events with UK Prime Minister on September 18?
1285 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 18, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?
709 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be 600k or more?
648 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2025$0.00
$-28.00
- YES
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 550k and 600k?
641 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2025$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 500k and 550k?
361 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 450k and 500k
339 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 400k and 450k?
222 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3000000 and 3250000?
201 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 3250000 and 3500000?
201 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 10, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?
167 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-7.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$5.18Jul 6, 10:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$10.33Mar 16, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$5.00Mar 12, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?$5.00Mar 9, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Night Agent: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week?$1.00Mar 4, 09:47 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition$0.00Mar 1, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump sued over tariff powers again by March 31?$2.00Mar 1, 13:56 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition$24.39Mar 1, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump sued over tariff powers again by March 31?$1.00Feb 22, 05:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?$5.00Feb 9, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?$6.00Feb 6, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$2.00Feb 4, 05:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$15.72Feb 2, 18:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump's approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on January 30, 2026?$18.21Feb 2, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$3.00Feb 2, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$5.00Jan 31, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$2.00Jan 31, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026?$4.53Jan 31, 03:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on January 30, 2026?$4.00Jan 29, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on January 30, 2026?$10.00Jan 29, 08:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $7.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 30, 19:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 10:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.