Fumbling-Copywriter
0xcbc91b9ceff35efb689504d702e13969ab35bfc5
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$5.00
Total PnL
$4.66
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?
5 shares @ 0.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$5.00
$5.00
- YES
Will Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
10 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-0.01
- YES
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 14 2025?
5 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-0.01
- YES
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?
5 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.05
- YES
Will Google reach $380 in November?
5 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-0.01
- YES
Will Tasso Lago win the Defi App trading competition?
5 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
5 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.05
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET
5 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.05
- YES
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.05
- YES
Will ENS win 2025 Uniswap Cup?
5 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Syria security agreement by June 30?$0.05Jun 28, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?$0.05Jun 10, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.05May 17, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?$0.05Apr 17, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9AM ET$0.05Apr 3, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tasso Lago win the Defi App trading competition?$0.01Jan 1, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall in 2025?$0.01Dec 30, 02:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025?$0.02Dec 23, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025?$0.03Dec 23, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Octavian Berceanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?$0.01Nov 30, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYHwang Kyo-ahn in jail by November 30?$0.01Nov 28, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google reach $380 in November?$0.01Nov 28, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ENS win 2025 Uniswap Cup?$0.01Nov 16, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?$0.01Nov 15, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released on November 14 2025?$0.01Nov 14, 22:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?$11.50Nov 14, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?$11.50Nov 14, 21:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?$11.50Nov 14, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?$11.50Nov 14, 21:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?$11.50Nov 14, 21:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $5.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 14, 21:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 28, 12:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.