Frozen-Athlete
0xcbd9eb34522fc128dc68e23e49a26836492cad53
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.45
Total PnL
$-567.49
Realised
$-28.20
Win rate
33%
52 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 23?
20 shares @ 3.5¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.26
$-0.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 23?
50 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.13
$-0.38
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on July 23?
40 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.06
$-0.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C or below on July 23?
20 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.01
$-0.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C or higher on March 23?
219 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on March 15?
204 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 23?
128 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 30?
102 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on February 27?
97 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 8?
93 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.71
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?$3.70Jul 23, 03:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 23?$0.50Jul 23, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 23?$4.50Jul 23, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 23?$0.30Jul 23, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 23?$0.04Jul 23, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 23?$0.16Jul 23, 01:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?$4.00Jul 22, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?$6.04Jul 22, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?$4.53Jul 22, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?$6.05Jul 22, 20:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?$8.06Jul 22, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 22?$0.16Jul 22, 19:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?$3.25Jul 22, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?$5.27Jul 22, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?$2.76Jul 22, 19:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 22?$0.08Jul 22, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?$2.86Jul 22, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 22?$0.30Jul 22, 19:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?$4.56Jul 22, 19:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 22?$1.41Jul 22, 19:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 52 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
52 closed markets, 33% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 17:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 03:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 52 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.