Friendly-Close
0xcbfa13c46eb5ff0d73ec9102bf91e3b1a85f1f40
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$34.85
Total PnL
$3.98
Realised
$2.55
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 27, 2026?
20 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$19.89
$0.09
- NO
Will GPT-5.6 be released on June 28, 2026?
11 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.14
$0.07
- YES
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
849 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.82
$1.27
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5.6 be released on June 27, 2026?$19.81Jun 23, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5.6 be released on June 28, 2026?$11.07Jun 23, 07:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?$433.33Jun 23, 05:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$5.09Jun 23, 02:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$21.0KJun 21, 14:02 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$3.89Jun 21, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$21.0KJun 21, 11:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$9.9KJun 21, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$3.81Jun 21, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$9.7KJun 20, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$21.56Jun 20, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$16.99Jun 20, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$52.41Jun 20, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$5.30Jun 20, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?$1.6KJun 18, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?$128.43Jun 18, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?$3.04Jun 18, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?$128.40Jun 18, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$6.6KJun 17, 17:24 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$3.2KJun 17, 16:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $1.7K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 17:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 07:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.