Inexperienced-Update
0xcc292b9d3a060a53c36d76fa5a968ed455e1258a
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
26
Open notional
$50.30
Total PnL
$-0.70
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$10.02
$0.02
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.03
$0.03
- NO
DeepSeek V4 released by March 21?
2 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$2.02
$0.02
- NO
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$2.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$2.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in March?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$2.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Meituan have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Chainlink dip to $2 in March?$2.00Mar 20, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hyperliquid dip to $12 in March?$1.00Mar 20, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $160 in March?$1.00Mar 20, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $3.20 in March?$1.00Mar 20, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?$2.00Mar 20, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?$10.00Mar 20, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?$1.00Mar 20, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada strike Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 20, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?$5.00Mar 20, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March?$1.00Mar 20, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$1.00Mar 20, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best AI model for math on March 31?$1.00Mar 20, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Artemis II launch by March 31?$1.00Mar 20, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meituan have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?$2.00Mar 20, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?$1.00Mar 20, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?$2.00Mar 20, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by March 21?$2.00Mar 20, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mistral have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?$2.00Mar 20, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?$2.00Mar 20, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$2.00Mar 20, 11:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $150.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 30, 01:01 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 20, 11:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.