Self-Assured-Laparoscope
0xcd154f053a291f46e550d5fbcd4cfa7ddbc4b352
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.69
Total PnL
$-191.05
Realised
$259.98
Win rate
96%
90 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 29?
276 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.66
$-0.28
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on July 29?
248 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.37
$-0.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C or higher on July 29?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 29?
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.13
$-1.88
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 29?
211 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.11
$-1.89
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on July 29?
181 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.09
$-1.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 41°C on July 29?
175 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.09
$-1.79
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 28?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 27?
729 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 28?
611 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$1.00Jul 29, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$1.00Jul 29, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 29?$0.41Jul 29, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 29?$0.35Jul 29, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 29?$0.59Jul 29, 07:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$3.84Jul 29, 07:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$2.16Jul 29, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$0.64Jul 29, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$0.89Jul 29, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$0.11Jul 29, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$1.00Jul 29, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$1.00Jul 29, 07:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$0.55Jul 29, 07:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$0.88Jul 29, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$0.80Jul 29, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$0.14Jul 29, 07:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$4.41Jul 29, 07:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$5.27Jul 29, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$0.90Jul 29, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 29?$1.00Jul 29, 07:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
96% win rate over 90 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
90 closed markets, 96% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 06:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 90 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.