Understated-Gambling
0xcd201271ed5ebced6655ea09f1b56c62219e6f35
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-8.8K
Realised
$3.34
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
45770 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.7K
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?
15458 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-602.85
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
15000 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-240.00
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
11626 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.0K
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
10261 shares @ 31.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.3K
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.39Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.42Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.42Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.43Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.23Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.19Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.19Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 8, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.17Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.19Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.19Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 1, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 1, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.