Frilly-Mesenchyme
0xcd2e81c0f846fadbe960e82cdc3dc9720d3d8129
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$86.74
Total PnL
$-33.07
Realised
$-0.06
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
56 shares @ 94.8¢·now 95.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$53.08
$0.08
- NO
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
8 shares @ 95.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$8.37
$0.37
- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May?
6 shares @ 94.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$6.34
$0.34
- NO
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
5 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.38
$0.38
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.26
$0.26
- NO
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?
5 shares @ 98.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.17
$0.09
- YES
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?
3 shares @ 95.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$3.14
$0.14
- YES
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings?
38 shares @ 91.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-34.68
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.