Known-Progress
0xcd2f0d63e3b496f3e02de41a40031202cd3a95c8
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
34
Open notional
$10.00
Total PnL
$-101.90
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
Government shutdown on Saturday?
10 shares @ 29.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$10.00
$7.10
- NO
US government shutdown Saturday?
6000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- NO
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?
1250 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- OILERS
Wild vs. Oilers
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- PANTHERS
Jets vs. Panthers
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 11?
1000 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 1PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 11?$3.61Feb 10, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 11?$2.39Feb 10, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYGovernment shutdown on Saturday?$2.90Feb 10, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?$1.00Feb 10, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeahawks vs. Patriots$1.00Feb 9, 02:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$2.47Feb 8, 20:45 UTC
- TRADESELLSeahawks vs. Patriots$10.00Feb 8, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?$2.00Feb 2, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 4?$5.00Feb 2, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 2?$1.00Feb 2, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2?$1.00Feb 2, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$10.00Feb 2, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$1.00Feb 2, 04:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$4.58Feb 2, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$1.00Feb 2, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Super Bowl" be said at the Grammys?$1.00Feb 2, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Billie" be said at the Grammys?$1.00Feb 2, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Justin" be said at the Grammys?$1.00Feb 2, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "ICE" be said at the Grammys?$1.00Feb 2, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?$5.00Feb 1, 23:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 31, 07:33 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 10, 22:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".