0xcd5e6f284a2fc91068df7c33c86807aca51ff763
0xcd5e6f284a2fc91068df7c33c86807aca51ff763
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$67.04
Total PnL
$-943.86
Realised
$-19.89
Win rate
27%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?
5 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$5.00
$0.02
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?
5 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$5.00
$0.05
- NO
Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?
5 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$5.00
$0.03
- CRUZEIRO EC
Spread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$4.99
$0.04
- OVER
Inter Miami CF vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 0.5
5 shares @ 98.4¢·now 99.3¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$4.96
$0.04
- NO
Exact Score: Fluminense FC 3 - 3 CR Vasco da Gama?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.2¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$4.96
$-0.03
- UNDER
CA Tigre vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 5.5
5 shares @ 99.3¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$4.94
$-0.03
- NO
Exact Score: Fluminense FC 2 - 3 CR Vasco da Gama?
5 shares @ 98.9¢·now 98.7¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$4.93
$-0.01
- NO
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?
5 shares @ 98.1¢·now 98.6¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$4.93
$0.02
- NO
Exact Score: Fluminense FC 3 - 2 CR Vasco da Gama?
5 shares @ 98.2¢·now 98.3¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$4.91
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Fluminense FC 2 - 3 CR Vasco da Gama?$4.95Aug 5, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Inter Miami CF 0 - 1 Atlético San Luis?$4.92Aug 5, 23:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill 0–1 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?$5.00Aug 5, 23:00 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Panathinaikós AO 0 - 2 FK CSKA 1948 Sofia?$5.00Aug 5, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYInter Miami CF vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 0.5$4.92Aug 5, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: CD La Equidad Seguros 0 - 2 Jaguares de Córdoba FC?$4.93Aug 5, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Fluminense FC 3 - 3 CR Vasco da Gama?$4.99Aug 5, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Fluminense FC 3 - 2 CR Vasco da Gama?$4.91Aug 5, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (-1.5)$4.95Aug 5, 21:00 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Fenerbahçe SK 0 - 2 SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz?$5.00Aug 5, 21:00 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: SK Brann 3 - 3 Apóllon Lemesoú?$5.00Aug 5, 21:00 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Fenerbahçe SK 2 - 3 SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz?$5.00Aug 5, 21:00 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Fenerbahçe SK 0 - 3 SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz?$5.00Aug 5, 21:00 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Fenerbahçe SK 1 - 3 SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz?$5.00Aug 5, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Grêmio FBPA 3 - 3 Mirassol FC?$4.99Aug 5, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Cruzeiro EC 2 - 3 Associação Chapecoense de Futebol?$4.98Aug 5, 20:09 UTC
- REDEEMExact Score: Aarhus GF 0 - 2 Sabah FK?$5.00Aug 5, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill 2 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?$5.00Aug 5, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYCA Tigre vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 5.5$4.97Aug 5, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Panathinaikós AO 0 - 2 FK CSKA 1948 Sofia?$4.97Aug 5, 18:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $4.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 4, 05:51 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 23:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.