Sorrowful-Cephalopod
0xcd62a43837be9506ef1b29c8690ddefcdbdf9fe2
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$-9.30
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1000 shares @ 97.4¢·now 98.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$988.50
$14.50
- NO
OKX IPO in 2026?
500 shares @ 79.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$465.00
$70.00
- YES
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Huracán end in a draw?
304 shares @ 89.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$303.63
$31.92
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
500 shares @ 49.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$285.25
$40.25
- YES
Was Trump hacked?
11856 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2025$0.00
$-993.97
- YES
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
2500 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 26, 2025$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
1503 shares @ 8.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 26, 2025$0.00
$-130.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
1428 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-90.37
- YES
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 45.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-456.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
317 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.11Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.