Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-6.5K

Realised

$-309.66

Win rate

14 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
340 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$0.00
$-29.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
256 shares @ 41.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-106.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
247 shares @ 51.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-128.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
233 shares @ 38.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-90.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
231 shares @ 27.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$0.00
$-63.66
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
230 shares @ 40.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-92.73
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
226 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-94.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
222 shares @ 49.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-110.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
214 shares @ 49.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-107.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
212 shares @ 49.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-105.00

Recent activity

REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$0.00Jul 24, 16:32 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$8.06Jul 24, 16:26 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$5.84Jul 24, 16:24 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$12.64Jul 24, 16:21 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$12.65Jul 24, 16:21 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$27.46Jul 24, 16:19 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$9.69Jul 24, 16:17 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$18.76Jul 24, 16:12 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$28.48Jul 24, 16:05 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$12.45Jul 24, 16:00 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$10.26Jul 24, 15:04 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$5.62Jul 24, 15:02 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$14.77Jul 24, 15:00 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$17.16Jul 24, 12:52 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$2.22Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$5.57Jul 23, 21:08 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$1.14Jul 23, 21:08 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$10.36Jul 23, 21:04 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$14.78Jul 23, 20:51 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$7.80Jul 23, 20:44 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

43/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

7% win rate over 14 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence47 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry76 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk41 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 42
Avg trade size: $23.02
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 23, 11:35 UTC
Last active: Jul 24, 16:32 UTC
Win rate sample: 14 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:12:19 UTC·src:Polymarket Data