Monthly-Restriction
0xcd9b5b48511dbee7a210f0c102a695ad3e56492a
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$6.43
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 2?
116 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-0.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on May 2?
98 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 29?
97 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-0.97
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 4?
94 shares @ 75.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-71.10
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 4?
93 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.09
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 3?
93 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.09
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on April 29?
92 shares @ 49.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-45.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C or higher on April 29?
88 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-0.42
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or higher on April 29?
75 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-0.15
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on May 2?
74 shares @ 97.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-72.20
Recent activity
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.15Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.45Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.24Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$3.55Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.77Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.44Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.85Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.21Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.30Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.80Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$3.89Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$5.07Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.81Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$7.99Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.56Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$6.24Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.36Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$6.82Jun 18, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$8.35Jun 17, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$9.34Jun 16, 00:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $0.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 7, 21:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.