Wallet digest

active

Activity score

43/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-5.8K

Realised

$2.23

Win rate

31%

16 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

YES
Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?
3128 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-156.38
NO
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
2490 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026
$0.00
$-191.72
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 9AM ET
1640 shares @ 12.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 2, 2025
$0.00
$-200.58
NO
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?
1483 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025
$0.00
$-13.35
YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?
1090 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-1.09
NO
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 4-10?
676 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025
$0.00
$-59.73
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 24?
552 shares @ 66.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-369.30
YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 14?
538 shares @ 23.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025
$0.00
$-125.24
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24?
508 shares @ 27.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-138.63
NO
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale?
507 shares @ 19.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026
$0.00
$-100.79

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$5.41Jul 28, 14:02 UTC
TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $64,000 on July 28?$7.58Jul 28, 14:01 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$30.50Jul 28, 13:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$5.28Jul 28, 13:59 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $64,000 on July 28?$9.42Jul 28, 13:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$5.16Jul 28, 13:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$15.33Jul 28, 13:52 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3AM ET$30.49Jul 28, 07:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3AM ET$57.19Jul 28, 07:05 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3AM ET$28.82Jul 28, 07:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3AM ET$31.18Jul 28, 07:01 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$4.84Jul 28, 06:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$10.50Jul 28, 06:51 UTC
TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 28?$3.85Jul 28, 02:44 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10PM ET$4.98Jul 28, 02:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$5.21Jul 28, 02:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10PM ET$15.42Jul 28, 02:10 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 28?$5.27Jul 28, 02:10 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$7.31Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-07-06?$11.91Jul 6, 13:28 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

42/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

31% win rate over 16 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity47 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence53 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry61 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk43 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 48
Avg trade size: $39.69
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 29, 12:58 UTC
Last active: Jul 28, 14:02 UTC
Win rate sample: 16 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 08:17:59 UTC·src:Polymarket Data