Definitive-Dugout
0xcdb716131b52edd4eaa0adfc11fa893cfd7b7d6f
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-245.23
Realised
$1.46
Win rate
91%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 30?
1025 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.63
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 30?
163 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.47
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 2?
104 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-8.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 3?
102 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 3?
101 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-3.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 30?
54 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 29?
52 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-0.41
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 1?
41 shares @ 48.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-19.71
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28?
39 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.73
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on May 1?
34 shares @ 42.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-14.65
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-07-06?$2.12Jul 6, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 28?$2.73Jun 28, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 27?$5.28Jun 27, 09:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 27?$5.46Jun 27, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 27?$4.79Jun 27, 08:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 27?$5.69Jun 27, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 27?$4.98Jun 27, 07:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27?$0.57Jun 27, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 27?$3.26Jun 27, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 27?$1.02Jun 27, 04:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27?$2.38Jun 27, 04:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 26?$6.00Jun 27, 03:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26?$6.00Jun 26, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 26?$5.46Jun 26, 18:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26?$1.01Jun 26, 15:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26?$4.54Jun 26, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 26?$3.92Jun 26, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26?$5.10Jun 26, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 26?$4.44Jun 26, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26?$1.84Jun 26, 12:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $3.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 08:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 15:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.