Cavernous-Plant
0xcdc1da1ea6fae8988a9bd78049424396ee97baef
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
31
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-148.77
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July?
585 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
176 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-72.27
- YES
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15?
91 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Liberal Party win between 47% and 50% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?
77 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the next Pope be gay?
73 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days?
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?
56 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy by May 31?
48 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Qatar military action against Iran by Friday?
45 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30?
43 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Gold close between $3200 and $3300 at the end of 2025?$0.29Nov 9, 11:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?$38.59Nov 6, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown in 2025?$1.70Sep 30, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLIs Earth flat?$0.17Sep 30, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesus Christ return in 2025?$0.30Sep 30, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLCongress authorizes military force against Iran in 2025?$0.83Sep 30, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYCongress authorizes military force against Iran in 2025?$4.00Jun 23, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYQatar military action against Iran by Friday?$1.00Jun 23, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?$33.19Jun 23, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?$26.82Jun 23, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?$45.45Jun 23, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strike on Iran on June 24?$1.00Jun 23, 21:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Pope be trans?$0.00Jun 23, 21:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?$0.00Jun 23, 21:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump pardon 500-749 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?$0.00Jun 23, 21:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?$0.00Jun 23, 21:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump pardon 750-999 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?$0.00Jun 23, 21:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on May 17?$1.96Jun 23, 21:16 UTC
- REDEEMFartcoin Up or Down on May 17?$1.96Jun 23, 21:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Liberal Party win between 41% and 44% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?$2.27Jun 23, 21:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $5.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 15, 14:58 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 9, 11:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.