Lost-Fort
0xcddcf861957f1b62618d26d798d4a16f43481515
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.7K
Realised
$38.65
Win rate
93%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or higher on March 15?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
498 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-164.18
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
481 shares @ 13.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-64.94
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
386 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-123.63
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
355 shares @ 24.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-88.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
334 shares @ 15.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-52.71
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
308 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-22.40
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
308 shares @ 32.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-99.44
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
300 shares @ 41.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-124.52
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
293 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-146.41
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$22.41Jul 18, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$3.10Jul 18, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$3.10Jul 18, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$3.10Jul 18, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$3.10Jul 18, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$3.77Jul 18, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$3.10Jul 18, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$3.10Jul 18, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$3.11Jul 18, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$3.12Jul 18, 14:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 19?$10.21Jul 18, 14:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?$45.83Jul 18, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 19?$10.03Jul 18, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?$50.67Jul 18, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$6.34Jul 18, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$4.80Jul 18, 09:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$14.10Jul 18, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$2.07Jul 18, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$2.36Jul 18, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$4.62Jul 18, 08:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
93% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $7.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 08:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 14:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.