Grumpy-Invader
0xcdf5d708feab46b07ca2e804a566fcbe267be344
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
79
Open notional
$294.48
Total PnL
$397.70
Realised
$475.18
Win rate
20%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 79- NO
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?
150 shares @ 91.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$129.00
$-7.50
- YES
Will Jwei Penta in LPL Split 3 2026?
105 shares @ 4.4¢·now 48.2¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$50.61
$45.96
- YES
Will Parukia Penta in LPL Split 3 2026?
100 shares @ 3.4¢·now 47.7¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$47.70
$44.25
- YES
Will huhi Penta in LCS Split 3 2026?
75 shares @ 3.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$37.50
$35.25
- NO
Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 92.0¢·now 28.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$14.30
$-31.70
- YES
Will Risk It All – Bruno Mars be the top song in the US for 2026?
82 shares @ 4.5¢·now 4.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.41
$-0.29
- YES
Will Lospa Penta in LEC Summer Split 2026?
75 shares @ 3.0¢·now 3.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$2.70
$0.45
- YES
Will Crisp Penta in LPL Split 3 2026?
75 shares @ 3.4¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.91
$-0.64
- NO
Will United Russia win the next Adygea Parliament elections?
98 shares @ 3.0¢·now 1.6¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$1.57
$-1.37
- YES
Will ON Penta in LPL Split 3 2026?
75 shares @ 3.7¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.82
$-1.95
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill HolaSoySergio Win the 2026 Soloq Challenge (Low Elo)$0.02Aug 20, 02:33 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $790 on August 20?$0.15Aug 20, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $790 on August 20?$0.43Aug 20, 02:28 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on August 20?$0.25Aug 20, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on August 20?$1.05Aug 20, 01:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hull City qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?$0.01Aug 20, 01:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hull City qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?$0.33Aug 20, 01:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hull City qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?$0.16Aug 20, 01:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?$0.04Aug 20, 01:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hull City qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?$0.30Aug 20, 01:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hull City qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Conference League?$0.55Aug 20, 01:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donavan McKinney win the MI-13 Democratic primary by less than 4%?$0.95Aug 20, 01:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Scott Brown be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?$0.82Aug 20, 01:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?$2.02Aug 20, 01:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hull City qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?$0.30Aug 20, 01:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Udinese qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?$0.20Aug 20, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $178 Week of August 17 2026?$12.98Aug 20, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Angers qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Conference League?$1.33Aug 20, 01:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brentford qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?$17.91Aug 20, 01:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Schalke 04 qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Europa League?$1.33Aug 20, 01:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
40 closed markets, 20% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $15.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 19, 22:14 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 02:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.