Simplistic-Jellyfish
0xcdf82242c9984bd8d274085ab54165633c54b8ea
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
83
Open notional
$140.8K
Total PnL
$1.4K
Realised
$-267.07
Win rate
55%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 83- NO
Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?
3043 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.0K
$2.57
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?
3000 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.0K
$28.51
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
3001 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.0K
$10.54
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
3000 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.0K
$7.50
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
2999 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.0K
$55.33
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
3000 shares @ 88.5¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.0K
$333.90
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
3000 shares @ 95.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.0K
$113.10
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
3000 shares @ 95.2¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.0K
$131.90
- YES
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
3000 shares @ 92.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$3.0K
$225.00
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
3000 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.0K
$4.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$1.0KJul 29, 16:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 28, 2026?$5.00Jul 29, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in July?$995.20Jul 29, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$498.56Jul 29, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?$297.07Jul 29, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?$696.32Jul 29, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYAndrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?$598.27Jul 29, 02:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$3.0KJul 29, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July?$297.86Jul 29, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?$596.09Jul 29, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$995.25Jul 29, 01:44 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$3.73Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$2.0KJul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?$59.27Jul 28, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x China tariff agreement by July 31?$98.60Jul 28, 13:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$1.01Jul 28, 13:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$15.17Jul 28, 13:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$104.90Jul 28, 13:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$40.74Jul 28, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$410.72Jul 28, 13:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 4 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
68%
Sample
limited
4 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
$9.5K · 32% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $811.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 01:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 16:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.