Sociable-Gain
0xce0b4097482284941cef43445e4f938c855d3e37
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$50.07
Win rate
55%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 4PM ET
2105 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-17.86
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7AM ET
1312 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 5PM ET
886 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-85.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12PM ET
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 5AM ET
345 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-8.10
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 3PM ET
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3PM ET
244 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 7AM ET
202 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 2PM ET
200 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 9AM ET$5.00Jul 29, 13:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7AM ET$3.67Jul 29, 12:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7AM ET$1.30Jul 29, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7AM ET$1.76Jul 29, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7AM ET$1.11Jul 29, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7AM ET$2.13Jul 29, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10AM ET$5.00Jul 28, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6AM ET$5.00Jul 28, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10AM ET$5.00Jul 27, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9AM ET$3.25Jul 27, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9AM ET$1.75Jul 27, 13:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8AM ET$3.68Jul 27, 13:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8AM ET$1.55Jul 27, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 8AM ET$5.00Jul 27, 12:26 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 8AM ET$7.29Jul 24, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 8AM ET$5.00Jul 24, 12:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 4AM ET$7.06Jul 24, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 4AM ET$5.00Jul 24, 08:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9AM ET$7.93Jul 23, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 9AM ET$5.00Jul 23, 13:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $4.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 14:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 13:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.