Wallet digest

active

Activity score

69/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

173

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-5.6K

Realised

$336.26

Win rate

97%

35 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 173

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
778 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-350.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
741 shares @ 49.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-370.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
717 shares @ 38.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-278.32
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
678 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
667 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
GAME HUNTERS
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Keyd - Map 2 Winner
631 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-1.94
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET
604 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026
$0.00
$-41.98
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
584 shares @ 51.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
518 shares @ 48.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-248.99
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$14.73May 12, 21:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$4.21May 12, 21:51 UTC
TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A$20.13May 12, 21:23 UTC
TRADESELLWill Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-12?$31.13May 12, 21:02 UTC
TRADESELLCounter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A$8.00May 12, 20:49 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-12?$25.08May 12, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A$5.12May 12, 20:27 UTC
TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner$5.60May 12, 19:16 UTC
TRADESELLCounter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner$15.81May 12, 19:08 UTC
TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner$9.61May 12, 18:27 UTC
TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 12?$28.18May 12, 18:12 UTC
TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 12?$1.35May 12, 15:54 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 12?$14.80May 11, 22:03 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 12?$2.85May 11, 22:02 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$13.65May 10, 00:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$112.46May 9, 23:18 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$113.12May 9, 23:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$99.98May 9, 23:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$382.96May 9, 20:24 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$311.56May 9, 20:23 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

82/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

97% win rate over 35 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

35 closed markets, 97% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry71 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk35 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $65.35
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 9, 19:24 UTC
Last active: May 12, 21:54 UTC
Win rate sample: 35 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 19:14:55 UTC·src:Polymarket Data