0xce5c6a248a20032388e08af014339436cef6f4b9
0xce5c6a248a20032388e08af014339436cef6f4b9
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
144
Open notional
$108.81
Total PnL
$-773.82
Realised
$-81.47
Win rate
26%
42 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 144- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
81 shares @ 51.3¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$40.91
$-0.66
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
78 shares @ 64.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$39.39
$-10.53
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
21 shares @ 68.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$10.43
$-3.90
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
20 shares @ 11.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$10.10
$7.90
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET
8 shares @ 56.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$4.04
$-0.44
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
5 shares @ 55.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$2.48
$-0.27
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
3 shares @ 47.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$1.47
$0.10
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
721 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-28.96
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
180 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
134 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-6.70
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$0.96Jun 22, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$1.30Jun 22, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$42.99Jun 22, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$3.40Jun 22, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$5.79Jun 22, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$5.15Jun 22, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$4.48Jun 22, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$1.37Jun 22, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$2.75Jun 21, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$11.56Jun 21, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$12.16Jun 21, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$5.92Jun 21, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$20.28Jun 21, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$1.56Jun 21, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$2.19Jun 21, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$16.89Jun 21, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$3.91Jun 21, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$3.05Jun 21, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$21.80Jun 21, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$0.37Jun 21, 01:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
26% win rate over 42 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
42 closed markets, 26% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $8.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 08:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 22, 06:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 42 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.