Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-4.2K

Realised

$-1.1K

Win rate

85 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
387 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-8.87
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
324 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-3.24
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET
253 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-2.53
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
127 shares @ 83.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-105.70
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
110 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-5.77
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
103 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-1.03
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
101 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-6.43
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
93 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-8.25
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
79 shares @ 47.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-37.87
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
76 shares @ 87.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-66.41

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$1.66Jul 9, 21:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$4.43Jun 20, 07:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$4.48Jun 20, 07:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$5.02Jun 20, 07:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$5.02Jun 20, 07:20 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$5.22Jun 20, 07:20 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$7.10Jun 20, 07:19 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$16.53Jun 20, 07:17 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$5.14Jun 20, 07:10 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$3.92Jun 20, 07:09 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$4.91Jun 20, 07:09 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$6.67Jun 20, 07:06 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$8.13Jun 20, 07:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$5.16Jun 20, 06:58 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$5.00Jun 20, 06:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$5.02Jun 20, 06:50 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$0.79Jun 20, 06:49 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$3.36Jun 20, 06:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$3.90Jun 20, 06:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$3.99Jun 20, 06:48 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

65/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 85 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

85 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry74 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 32
Avg trade size: $4.19
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 20, 05:59 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:15 UTC
Win rate sample: 85 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:48:51 UTC·src:Polymarket Data