Warm-Rationale
0xcea22c79667242226adfd466094d4a93ffe50f20
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
31
Open notional
$503.47
Total PnL
$-396.19
Realised
$-2.81
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
917 shares @ 10.9¢·now 11.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$106.88
$6.88
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
621 shares @ 16.1¢·now 16.2¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$100.31
$0.31
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
588 shares @ 17.0¢·now 16.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$97.94
$-2.06
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
952 shares @ 10.5¢·now 9.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$91.90
$-8.09
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1136 shares @ 4.4¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$56.25
$6.25
- YES
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2381 shares @ 2.1¢·now 1.9¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$46.43
$-3.57
- YES
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$3.75
$-1.25
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
500 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
376 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-19.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
333 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.04Jun 14, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$0.00Jun 13, 10:57 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 13, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?$41.26Jun 12, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.15Jun 12, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?$28.15Jun 12, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$51.43Jun 12, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$51.47Jun 12, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$102.68Jun 12, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$102.67Jun 12, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$102.52Jun 12, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$102.49Jun 12, 13:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$21.01Apr 2, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$5.00Apr 2, 16:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$22.28Apr 1, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$12.00Apr 1, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 1?$5.00Apr 1, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET$5.00Apr 1, 15:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$4.13Apr 1, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 1?$1.85Apr 1, 15:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $21.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 31, 20:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.