Unlucky-Dressing
0xceae15533f441b29685bb41dd8d25835760c7a2d
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$6.5K
Realised
$8.0K
Win rate
93%
45 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
11512 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$0.02
- YES
Will Mario Kart World win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
11400 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$0.02
- YES
Will Call of Duty: Black Ops 7 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
11352 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$0.01
- YES
Will Metroid Prime 4: Beyond win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
11266 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$0.01
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
10999 shares @ -0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?
10951 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-5.73
- YES
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
10891 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$0.10
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
10879 shares @ -0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$1.13
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
10859 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 25, 2025$0.00
$1.05
- YES
Will Borderlands 4 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
10753 shares @ 0.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
93% win rate over 45 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
45 closed markets, 93% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $36.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 23:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 45 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.