Polite-Acquaintance
0xceb21f368034674e6ffe0db5f9fdba49ea28c312
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$743.94
Total PnL
$-345.10
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?
650 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$649.82
$2.00
- YES
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?
94 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$94.12
$14.12
- NO
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?
300 shares @ 99.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
58 shares @ 89.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-51.22
- YES
Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-12?
17 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 12, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUSD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?$47.82Feb 19, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYUSD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?$80.00Feb 19, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUSD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?$300.00Feb 19, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUSD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?$600.00Feb 19, 17:55 UTC
- REDEEMAztec FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?$112.22Feb 15, 08:20 UTC
- REDEEMAztec FDV above $2B one day after launch?$354.30Feb 15, 08:20 UTC
- REDEEMAztec FDV above $1B one day after launch?$561.29Feb 15, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYAztec FDV above $1B one day after launch?$504.83Feb 11, 18:20 UTC
- REDEEMZama FDV above $4B one day after launch?$504.84Feb 8, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$51.22Feb 3, 21:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?$51.21Feb 1, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?$50.19Jan 23, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYAztec FDV above $1B one day after launch?$50.00Jan 23, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYAztec FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?$111.00Jan 23, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYAztec FDV above $2B one day after launch?$350.00Jan 23, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYZama FDV above $4B one day after launch?$500.00Jan 23, 15:53 UTC
- REDEEMNicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026?$501.00Jan 13, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?$224.47Jan 9, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMMaduro mugshot released by Monday?$335.72Jan 9, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro mugshot released by Monday?$322.29Jan 5, 20:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $176.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 8, 20:04 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 19, 17:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.