Pessimistic-Hospital
0xcef6c12ad7036a2cf4e5f5a845fdc9d58a3f2ade
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$160.47
Total PnL
$-2.8K
Realised
$-211.31
Win rate
31%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 29?
43 shares @ 84.3¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$42.94
$6.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 29?
36 shares @ 88.7¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$35.68
$3.39
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 29?
30 shares @ 92.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$29.91
$2.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29?
27 shares @ 89.4¢·now 80.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$21.61
$-2.35
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 30?
17 shares @ 69.1¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$12.15
$0.41
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 30?
14 shares @ 66.5¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$9.59
$0.28
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 30?
15 shares @ 62.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$8.40
$-0.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?
16 shares @ 28.4¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.17
$-4.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 29?
25 shares @ 44.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.01
$-11.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 29?
23 shares @ 92.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.01
$-21.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 29?$7.85Jul 29, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 29?$2.29Jul 29, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?$4.25Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 29?$4.35Jul 29, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 31?$1.38Jul 29, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 30?$2.13Jul 29, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 29?$2.10Jul 29, 07:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 28?$8.01Jul 29, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 29?$10.97Jul 29, 07:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 28?$4.00Jul 29, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?$1.55Jul 29, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 29?$3.66Jul 29, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 29?$17.50Jul 29, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 29?$1.20Jul 29, 07:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 28?$2.00Jul 29, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?$3.60Jul 29, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 29?$17.12Jul 29, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 29?$4.62Jul 29, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 39°C on July 29?$1.64Jul 29, 06:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 28?$24.65Jul 29, 06:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
31% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $4.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 04:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.