Wallet digest

profitable

Activity score

100/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$1.2K

Realised

$3.4K

Win rate

93%

164 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - November 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
61 shares @ 32.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 24, 2025
$0.00
$-19.65
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
61 shares @ 21.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 8, 2025
$0.00
$-13.26
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
61 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 27, 2025
$0.00
$-1.21
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
60 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 9, 2025
$0.00
$-6.08
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
60 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025
$0.00
$-2.63
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET
60 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025
$0.00
$-0.60
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
60 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025
$0.00
$-0.60
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
60 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025
$0.00
$-0.60
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
60 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025
$0.00
$-0.60
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
60 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 13, 2025
$0.00
$-0.93

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$1.39Jul 9, 21:15 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.36Jun 23, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.11Jun 1, 13:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$1.10Jun 1, 13:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$2.08Jun 1, 13:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$1.88Jun 1, 13:01 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$5.00Jun 1, 13:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.11Jun 1, 12:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$4.20Jun 1, 12:56 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$5.00Jun 1, 12:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$4.20Jun 1, 12:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$1.11Jun 1, 12:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$4.77Jun 1, 12:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$3.77Jun 1, 12:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$4.44Jun 1, 12:52 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$3.77Jun 1, 12:52 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$2.99Jun 1, 12:52 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$3.18Jun 1, 12:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$2.13Jun 1, 12:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$1.15Jun 1, 12:46 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

80/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

93% win rate over 164 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

164 closed markets, 93% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity43 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry37 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 42
Avg trade size: $2.55
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 1, 12:28 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:15 UTC
Win rate sample: 164 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:59:56 UTC·src:Polymarket Data