Improbable-Quiver
0xceff4a422830e54ff74d9bfbc003f85db6da9b30
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$7.21
Total PnL
$-30.11
Realised
$1.04
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
5 shares @ 95.4¢·now 99.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.22
$0.21
- NO
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2 shares @ 97.7¢·now 98.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.00
$0.02
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 19?
2120 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-4.24
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 27?
1090 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.27
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 26?
1082 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.16
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 25?
1080 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-6.48
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 15?
1079 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 23?
1067 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.37
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 22?
1063 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.54
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 2?
1059 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.12
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of August 3 2026?$5.77Aug 7, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of August 3 2026?$5.75Aug 7, 05:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,110 Week of July 27 2026?$5.70Jul 31, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,110 Week of July 27 2026?$5.68Jul 30, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of July 20 2026?$5.68Jul 24, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of July 20 2026?$5.66Jul 23, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$0.02Jul 9, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$0.02Jul 9, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$0.03Jul 9, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$0.02Jul 9, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$0.02Jul 9, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$0.02Jul 9, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$0.02Jul 9, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$0.02Jul 9, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$0.03Jul 9, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$0.02Jul 9, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$0.02Jul 9, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$0.03Jul 9, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$0.03Jul 9, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 6 2026?$0.02Jul 9, 05:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
11/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $289.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 12, 03:50 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 23:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.