Spherical-Party
0xcf39e5cd6c1582389f7d117558c6c202674c3e76
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$110.02
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
10000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
10000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
2915 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-45.10
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
1750 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
1350 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-59.99
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
1249 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-104.45
- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
1210 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-73.01
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - January 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
1200 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-96.63
- UP
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
1050 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-88.44
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?$4.59Feb 13, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?$11.25Feb 13, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?$5.76Feb 13, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$8.10Feb 13, 06:29 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$0.09Feb 13, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$36.68Feb 12, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$10.00Feb 12, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$4.74Feb 12, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.34Feb 12, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.20Feb 12, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.64Feb 12, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.97Feb 12, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.11Feb 12, 14:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$6.52Feb 12, 14:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$0.59Feb 12, 14:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.25Feb 12, 14:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.71Feb 12, 14:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$11.19Feb 12, 14:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$16.35Feb 12, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$1.04Feb 12, 14:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $4.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 30, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 13, 08:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.