Irresponsible-Clasp
0xcf475caf6ea8912afa2ff973427e9683dd85d019
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
68
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-208.48
Realised
$-8.39
Win rate
0%
68 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 68- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 21?
246 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-4.66
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on July 4?
160 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 21?
100 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 21?
90 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 23?
89 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 22?
84 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 5?
81 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 21?
75 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 4?
73 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-6.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 5?
72 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-7.92
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 5?$4.14Jul 5, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 5?$0.73Jul 5, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 5?$4.14Jul 5, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on July 5?$0.72Jul 5, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 5?$4.19Jul 5, 03:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 4?$13.24Jul 4, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 4?$2.47Jul 4, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 4?$0.75Jul 4, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 4?$3.14Jul 4, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 4?$1.15Jul 4, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 4?$1.72Jul 4, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 4?$2.32Jul 4, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 4?$0.86Jul 4, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 4?$0.52Jul 4, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on July 4?$0.63Jul 4, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on July 4?$0.77Jul 4, 07:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 3?$6.17Jul 4, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 4?$0.94Jul 4, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 4?$4.17Jul 4, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 4?$4.17Jul 4, 05:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 68 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
68 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 20:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 03:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 68 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.