New-Poppy
0xcf6d074feb65fb91a80f6af25848754950cb0162
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-215.16
Realised
$29.30
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
168 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-25.34
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
153 shares @ 7.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-11.86
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET
126 shares @ 46.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-59.15
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
125 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-9.99
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
117 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference?
100 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?
80 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
73 shares @ 27.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-19.92
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
50 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-4.49
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
42 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.58
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference?$20.00Jun 17, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?$40.00Jun 17, 18:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$162.16Jun 10, 13:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$131.23Jun 10, 12:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$187.49Jun 10, 01:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$5.81Jun 10, 01:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$109.43Jun 10, 01:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$89.16Jun 9, 23:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$16.00Jun 9, 23:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$18.56Jun 9, 23:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$21.76Jun 9, 23:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$25.60Jun 9, 23:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$30.08Jun 9, 23:26 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.90Jun 6, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$116.68Jun 5, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$2.15Jun 5, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$7.56Jun 5, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$6.30Jun 5, 16:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$7.56Jun 5, 16:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?$77.33Jun 5, 16:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $63.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 20, 15:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 19:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.