First-Orchestra
0xcf6e41c6e34a5a60769af4717ec2e71a4fd9461f
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$428.64
Total PnL
$-599.80
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4230 shares @ 5.9¢·now 5.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$217.87
$-32.13
- YES
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
10983 shares @ 1.8¢·now 1.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$186.70
$-13.29
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
845 shares @ 4.2¢·now 2.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$24.07
$-11.40
- YES
Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?
9863 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
4602 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-66.99
- YES
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
1912 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-130.00
- YES
Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31?
1356 shares @ 9.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-131.00
- YES
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
1101 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-70.00
- YES
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
495 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-45.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
455 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jun 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jun 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jun 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jun 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jun 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jun 9, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 8, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$259.41Jun 7, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$207.85Jun 7, 12:29 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 7, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 6, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 4, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$47.47Jun 3, 04:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 2, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 31, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 30, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 29, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 4
- Avg trade size
- $137.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 30, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.