Roasted-Raft
0xcf70ab83339938f744048460d2d5866136538f19
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
129
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$-36.38
Win rate
58%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 129- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 14?
219 shares @ 33.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-72.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 24?
176 shares @ 14.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-26.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 22?
163 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-66.78
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 10?
142 shares @ 39.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-56.00
- YES
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?
138 shares @ 48.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-67.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23?
121 shares @ 24.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-30.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23?
112 shares @ 17.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-19.77
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 21?
106 shares @ 45.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-47.87
- YES
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?
104 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-49.92
- YES
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?
100 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.90
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$120.54Jul 28, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$120.90Jul 28, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$103.73Jul 28, 07:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$30.67Jul 28, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$91.20Jul 28, 04:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$70.26Jul 17, 14:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$196.00Jul 17, 14:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$15.00Jul 17, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$182.56Jul 17, 14:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?$0.17Jul 4, 18:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?$2.71Jul 4, 17:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?$1.50Jul 3, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?$1.55Jun 29, 07:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?$19.00Jun 29, 07:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?$10.00Jun 29, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?$1.97Jun 29, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?$6.81Jun 27, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?$7.28Jun 26, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?$2.66Jun 26, 12:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?$1.59Jun 25, 13:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $26.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 03:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 07:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.