Good-Natured-Subcontractor
0xcfa7d411306277d92a7dbb82f15dd98f93e73d98
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-452.46
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Quiroga and Rodríguez advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?
30111 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2025$0.00
$-413.00
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on August 22?
85 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2025$0.00
$-37.46
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down on August 23?
11 shares @ 18.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on August 24?$1.89Aug 24, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 24?$1.00Aug 24, 09:22 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on August 24?$6.01Aug 24, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 24?$4.62Aug 24, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down on August 23?$1.00Aug 22, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down on August 23?$1.00Aug 22, 20:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on August 22?$6.62Aug 22, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $190 and $200 on August 22?$1.72Aug 21, 08:10 UTC
- REDEEMSolana above $180 on August 20?$1.72Aug 21, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on August 22?$37.46Aug 21, 06:39 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 20, 3AM ET$2.13Aug 20, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 20, 2AM ET$0.00Aug 20, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 20, 2AM ET$0.00Aug 20, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 20, 2AM ET$0.00Aug 20, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 20, 2AM ET$0.00Aug 20, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 20, 3AM ET$1.00Aug 20, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 20, 3AM ET$1.00Aug 20, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 20, 2AM ET$2.00Aug 20, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 20, 2AM ET$1.00Aug 20, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana above $180 on August 20?$1.00Aug 20, 06:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $30.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 18, 07:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 24, 19:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.