Oval-Darn
0xcfc2148ac1bcddb6fe49db599bafa199218aeeae
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
93
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-46.76
Win rate
0%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 93- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 18?
110 shares @ 45.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-50.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 18?
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 18?
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 18?
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 18?
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 18?
100 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 20?
60 shares @ 50.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-30.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 17?
50 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 20?
50 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 19?
50 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$0.30Jul 22, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$4.77Jul 22, 15:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$33.52Jul 22, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$11.59Jul 22, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$33.60Jul 22, 15:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$197.68Jul 22, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$1.90Jul 22, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$12.05Jul 22, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$1.34Jul 22, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$0.00Jul 22, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$1.00Jul 22, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$2.23Jul 22, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$1.14Jul 22, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$6.38Jul 22, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$1.10Jul 22, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$3.04Jul 22, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$20.40Jul 22, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$27.40Jul 22, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$0.83Jul 22, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$0.27Jul 22, 15:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $17.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 05:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 15:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.