Wallet digest

profitable

Activity score

100/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$2.3K

Total PnL

$75.47

Realised

$1.78

Win rate

100%

3 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 38

NO
Discord IPO before 2027?
1096 shares @ 45.3¢·now 64.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$702.85
$206.01
NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?
290 shares @ 96.4¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$288.97
$9.39
NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?
240 shares @ 97.3¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$239.40
$5.93
NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?
140 shares @ 86.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$139.50
$18.16
NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?
70 shares @ 97.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$69.86
$1.61
NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in July?
70 shares @ 97.7¢·now 99.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$69.37
$1.00
NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?
72 shares @ 87.3¢·now 92.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$65.95
$3.34
NO
Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch?
70 shares @ 61.3¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$60.90
$18.00
NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
60 shares @ 88.9¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$59.67
$6.33
NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
56 shares @ 92.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$52.89
$1.38

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in July?$19.72Jul 28, 10:17 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?$17.60Jul 27, 19:26 UTC
TRADEBUYDiscord IPO before 2027?$18.17Jul 27, 16:35 UTC
TRADEBUYDiscord IPO before 2027?$26.55Jul 27, 16:16 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,300 in July?$19.78Jul 27, 15:21 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?$3.33Jul 27, 14:30 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?$9.10Jul 26, 22:01 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
REWARD$1.02Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
TRADEBUYDiscord IPO before 2027?$40.20Jul 25, 16:56 UTC
TRADEBUYDiscord IPO before 2027?$26.80Jul 25, 15:28 UTC
REWARD$5.21Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?$9.82Jul 24, 19:43 UTC
REDEEMWill Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 24, 19:27 UTC
REDEEMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 24, 19:27 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$42.50Jul 24, 14:05 UTC
TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?$34.00Jul 24, 11:28 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

19/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

100% win rate over 3 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

review

36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity68 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence10 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry32 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk59 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 36
Avg trade size: $26.31
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 21, 00:37 UTC
Last active: Jul 28, 10:17 UTC
Win rate sample: 3 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 19:31:21 UTC·src:Polymarket Data