Outlying-Member
0xd00372838cdad12df180ae3de6916643f6fecaba
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-361.06
Realised
$7.87
Win rate
98%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on May 15?
700 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 14?
700 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 14?
700 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on May 14?
700 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on May 14?
700 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on May 15?
700 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on May 14?
700 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on May 14?
700 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 14?
693 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-0.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on May 15?
692 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.69
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$5.00Jun 26, 02:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$5.00Jun 26, 01:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$2.50Jun 26, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$2.50Jun 26, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$2.50Jun 26, 01:43 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$5.00Jun 26, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$0.70Jun 26, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$2.50Jun 26, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$2.50Jun 26, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET$2.50Jun 26, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$0.58Jun 26, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$1.92Jun 26, 01:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$5.00Jun 26, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$2.50Jun 26, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$2.50Jun 26, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$2.50Jun 26, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$5.00Jun 26, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$2.50Jun 26, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$2.50Jun 26, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$2.50Jun 26, 00:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
82/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
98% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
40 closed markets, 98% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $2.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 08:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 02:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.