Rowdy-Musicbox
0xd029f49866b874601a721d96b3963dd36cc56b48
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-200.08
Realised
$20.80
Win rate
83%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 5AM ET
104 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.99
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 10PM ET
89 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
71 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.99
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET
41 shares @ 12.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-4.99
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET
38 shares @ 13.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.01
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
34 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-7.49
- YES
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?
34 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,000 on the final trading day of March 2026?
33 shares @ 14.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
33 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.16
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
31 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-9.88
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win on 2026-06-13?$20.25Jun 13, 12:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$20.72Jun 13, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$10.04Jun 12, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$7.55Mar 25, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$0.83Mar 25, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$1.00Mar 25, 13:28 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$0.20Mar 25, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$5.00Mar 25, 13:22 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$6.73Mar 25, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$6.00Mar 25, 13:21 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.49Mar 25, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$6.00Mar 25, 13:16 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$5.19Mar 25, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$3.13Mar 25, 13:12 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$0.73Mar 25, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$5.00Mar 25, 12:55 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$7.73Mar 25, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$5.00Mar 25, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$0.52Mar 25, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$1.00Mar 25, 12:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 24, 19:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 12:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.