Ancient-Decisionmaking
0xd0416f259253bac8e3705eb84691a84b6d411d0d
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
40
Open notional
$8.38
Total PnL
$-387.26
Realised
$-14.43
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
38 shares @ 13.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$4.42
$-0.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15?
42 shares @ 12.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$3.96
$-1.04
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
296 shares @ 13.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-39.84
- AURORA GAMING
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
218 shares @ 6.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- USA
Winter Games 2026: Norway (-4.5) vs. USA (+4.5) gold medals?
209 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
198 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-20.01
- YES
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?
167 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?
125 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 20?
113 shares @ 17.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYScott McTominay: 1+ goals$9.16Jun 14, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYCall of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier$5.11Jun 14, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15?$5.22Jun 14, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neymar play in the World Cup?$5.13Jun 14, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morocco win on 2026-06-13?$1.03Jun 14, 00:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win on 2026-06-13?$5.15Jun 14, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYHaiti vs. Scotland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners$3.07Jun 13, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?$5.14Jun 13, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners$5.12Jun 13, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYQatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners$5.13Jun 13, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?$20.57Jun 13, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYQatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5$15.28Jun 13, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMUnited States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5$52.63Jun 13, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$2.11Jun 12, 22:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$3.33Jun 12, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$2.06Jun 12, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$2.10Jun 12, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$2.10Jun 12, 22:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$4.08Jun 12, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$2.07Jun 12, 22:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $3.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 21:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.