Ugly-Deliberation
0xd04ba7d3d2343ff4f88a6653e4c5c741e13a2be6
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$178.58
Total PnL
$-840.67
Realised
$75.75
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 2025?
134 shares @ 37.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2025$133.58
$84.13
- NO
China x Philippines military clash by December 31?
16 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$16.00
$1.76
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
14 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$14.00
$1.68
- NO
X allowed to operate in China before May?
8 shares @ 97.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2025$8.00
$0.22
- NO
China x India military clash by December 31?
7 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$7.00
$1.19
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 2025?
2596 shares @ 18.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2025$0.00
$-483.92
- YES
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $91m?
2213 shares @ 22.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2025$0.00
$-488.25
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 2025?
976 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2025$0.00
$-33.24
Recent activity
- REWARD$0.18Feb 17, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 2025?$43.00Feb 16, 08:34 UTC
- REWARD$0.34Feb 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 2025?$39.21Feb 15, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $91m?$318.04Feb 15, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $91m?$0.06Feb 15, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $91m?$170.15Feb 15, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 2025?$501.78Feb 15, 19:13 UTC
- REWARD$0.37Feb 11, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 2025?$56.82Feb 10, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 2025?$1.90Feb 10, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 2025?$0.75Feb 10, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 2025?$0.60Feb 10, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 2025?$0.75Feb 10, 10:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 2025?$38.91Feb 10, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 2025?$58.52Feb 10, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 2025?$1.84Feb 10, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 2025?$0.66Feb 10, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 2025?$6.23Feb 10, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 2025?$26.93Feb 10, 09:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $48.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 7, 03:37 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 17, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".