Early-Priest-Tension
0xd04e56d13b8cf3c18602170512fc3b884f0e122e
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$73.47
Total PnL
$-96.23
Realised
$13.53
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 26?
40 shares @ 35.7¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$18.20
$3.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 26?
70 shares @ 26.6¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$17.85
$-0.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 27?
57 shares @ 33.7¢·now 31.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$17.62
$-1.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 27?
90 shares @ 24.1¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$10.35
$-11.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 27?
30 shares @ 36.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$9.45
$-1.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 23?
215 shares @ 15.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-33.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 6?
156 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-9.89
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 21?
60 shares @ 18.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-10.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 13?
41 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.80
- NOVAK DJOKOVIC
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic
40 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-8.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 27?$0.35Jul 25, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 27?$1.67Jul 25, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 27?$0.61Jul 25, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 27?$0.19Jul 25, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 27?$0.83Jul 25, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 27?$0.65Jul 25, 07:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 26?$9.00Jul 25, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 27?$0.01Jul 25, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 27?$1.75Jul 25, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 27?$1.08Jul 25, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 27?$0.54Jul 25, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 27?$3.60Jul 25, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 27?$2.49Jul 25, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 27?$6.32Jul 25, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 27?$2.80Jul 25, 04:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 27?$2.80Jul 25, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 27?$8.70Jul 25, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 27?$3.82Jul 25, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 27?$3.82Jul 25, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 27?$3.82Jul 25, 04:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 01:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 07:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.