Regular-Modernist
0xd09d72d44f42c4b382064ffe68ae4f99a7aaf139
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$-1.9K
Win rate
16%
200 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
180 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.67
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
180 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.67
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
178 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.27
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
120 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.33
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
120 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.33
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
111 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-28.91
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
111 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-28.91
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
111 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-28.91
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
111 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-28.91
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
95 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-24.57
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$1.26Apr 28, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 06:34 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 06:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 05:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$1.21Apr 28, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 05:54 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 05:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 05:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 05:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 04:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 04:30 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 04:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 04:29 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$1.21Apr 28, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$1.20Apr 28, 04:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 200 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
200 closed markets, 16% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $1.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 28, 00:59 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 28, 06:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 200 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.