Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

167

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-13.0K

Realised

$-704.80

Win rate

167 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 167

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET
2494 shares @ 19.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-490.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
2438 shares @ 15.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-377.37
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
2158 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-178.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
2070 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-236.74
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
1850 shares @ 20.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-377.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
1816 shares @ 14.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-257.66
E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs
1703 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-218.15
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
1666 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-165.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
1580 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-266.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
1408 shares @ 25.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-355.00

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$12.19Aug 9, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.46Aug 8, 00:35 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$1.26Jul 17, 12:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$15.12Jul 17, 12:25 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$15.14Jul 17, 12:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$11.25Jul 17, 12:14 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$0.50Jul 17, 12:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$10.41Jul 17, 12:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$15.51Jul 17, 12:09 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$36.65Jul 17, 12:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$36.90Jul 17, 12:05 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$36.75Jul 17, 12:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$31.07Jul 17, 12:02 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$31.24Jul 17, 11:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$23.92Jul 17, 11:54 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$1.50Jul 17, 11:52 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$22.38Jul 17, 11:52 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$21.92Jul 17, 11:52 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$21.90Jul 17, 11:49 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$11.54Jul 17, 11:46 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

56/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

4% win rate over 167 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

167 closed markets, 4% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity48 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry33 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 40
Avg trade size: $49.77
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 15, 12:15 UTC
Last active: Aug 9, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 167 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 13:33:04 UTC·src:Polymarket Data