Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-88.01

Realised

$-1.91

Win rate

77 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 77

UNDER
San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5
105 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UNDER
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
COLORADO ROCKIES
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies
26 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
ALGERIA
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advance
26 shares @ 33.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-8.71
NEW YORK YANKEES
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
11 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
France vs. Sweden: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
SAN DIEGO PADRES
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
France vs. Sweden: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$0.00Aug 4, 20:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$1.07Aug 4, 20:32 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$0.93Aug 4, 20:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$1.07Aug 4, 20:31 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$0.00Aug 4, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$1.03Aug 4, 20:26 UTC
REDEEMWill AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-08-04?$1.27Aug 4, 20:12 UTC
TRADEBUYWill AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-08-04?$1.01Aug 4, 19:37 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-08-04?$1.02Aug 4, 19:17 UTC
TRADESELLWill MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva win on 2026-08-04?$1.45Aug 4, 19:17 UTC
TRADEBUYWill MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva win on 2026-08-04?$1.03Aug 4, 19:05 UTC
REDEEMNational Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby$1.37Aug 4, 17:07 UTC
REDEEMCanadian Open: Sebastian Baez vs Mattia Bellucci$1.16Aug 4, 17:02 UTC
TRADEBUYNational Bank Open: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro$1.02Aug 4, 16:53 UTC
TRADEBUYNational Bank Open: Adam Walton vs Jenson Brooksby$1.01Aug 4, 16:26 UTC
TRADEBUYCanadian Open: Sebastian Baez vs Mattia Bellucci$1.01Aug 4, 15:56 UTC
TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks$1.04Aug 4, 02:41 UTC
TRADEBUYToronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros$1.04Aug 4, 01:42 UTC
TRADESELLSt. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees$2.98Aug 4, 01:39 UTC
TRADEBUYTampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies$1.05Aug 4, 01:34 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

64/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 77 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

77 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity43 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry64 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk23 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 39
Avg trade size: $1.13
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 2, 18:12 UTC
Last active: Aug 4, 20:36 UTC
Win rate sample: 77 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 10:41:09 UTC·src:Polymarket Data